Week 4 2022 picks
My apologies for failing to post my Week 3 picks. We had another good week in the contest bringing out 2022 season total to 11 points (73% ATS). Remember, you can follow the performance in the Analytics section and see how other popular models are faring.
Let’s get into who we like for Week 4:
Raw algorithm picks (Last week 4-1)
LAR +1.5 ★★⇩
DEN +3 ★
TB +1 ★
CLE -1.5 ★
DAL -3 ★
Preferred sides:
NO +2.5 (vs. MIN) - Moderate - This game is being played in London and Jameis Winston is out. The market line is 3.5, while the contest is only offering 2.5 to the Saints. Given the line movement, I think anything under a FG leans Vikings and anything over a FG leans Saints. The AMOS line shows 2.5 as the fair number and I’ve played that myself mostly following the money: the public is 3:1 on the Vikings but the money is a mere 1.5:1. Not a strong play but lean Saints.
BAL +3 (vs. BUF) - Moderate - Taking a good team off a loss is usually a wise approach but here I think there’s slight value resting on the home team, Ravens. Money is basically split 50-50, yet like the London tilt, the money is slightly heavier per ticket on the Ravens and I think that’s right. AMOS shows this at Ravens +2.8.
NYJ +3.5 (@ PIT) - Strong - Doesn’t seem like the wiseguys are opting for the spread in this matchup because the ticket count is 60% Steelers yet the moneyline appears to be where they’re taking the ‘dog. Nearly 2/3 tickets on the Steelers to win yet money is split 50-50. I’m taking the Jets in this one.
HOU +5 (vs. LAC) - Strong - The MSM’s been all over the coaching decisions to leave the injured Herbert late in the game during a blowout loss last week and for that reason, I’m tempted to lay the points on the road against the league-worst Texans. But laying points on the road isn’t a strategy that I like. AMOS shows the contest number being fair (+4.9) but where I’m convinced is that the preseason line was Chargers -8.5, reopened this week at -6.5, and has been bet down to 5. Two-thirds of the tickets are on the Chargers to cover, while the money is about 50-50. Plugging my nose and taking the home team here, ugly.
NYG -3 (vs. CHI) - Moderate - From my view, it seemed like the money started rolling in on the Giants as soon as they lost their MNF tilt last week vs their arch enemy, Cowboys. Money split is about +12% favoring the home team here. AMOS shows this game at -2 and the live market is moving down from the contest line of -3 to -2.5, currently.
ATL +1.5 (vs. CLE) - Moderate - Once again, about 50-50 on the money but the public is rushing to the window to lay a short line on the road. I think that’s a suckers play and, sure, the Falcons aren’t a sexy team, but it’s not like the Browns have a QB edge in this one. I’ve bet this already but want to see how the line shakes out this weekend before making it a contest play.
LAR +1.5 (@ SF) - Moderate - The AMOS number shows value here on the Rams, even though their last showing was marginally better than the Cardinals. My perception is that the ‘Niners are a tough out and the Rams are a shell of their SB-winning selves. This certainly as the makeup of a close, divisional game. The market seems to be shading the ‘Niners and that scares me enough to likely pass on this one.
CAR -1 (vs. ARI) - Strong - I do think the public is over exuberant on the visiting Cardinals in this one. Nearly 5:1 tickets are coming in on the Cards, having to travel cross-country. The consensus win% for the Cardinals is around 55%, yet >75% of bettors are backing the Cards straight up. I haven’t come across any major disruptions from Hurricane Ian so I feel like this line is wrong.
WSH +3 (@ DAL) - Weak - The Commanders (still have a hard time getting used to that) are a dumpster fire at 1-2. There does seem to be some market respect behind the visiting team…either that or my power ratings for the Commanders are too low. AMOS likes America’s Team by nearly 5 points so only laying 3 at home feels warm and fuzzy. Doesn’t seem like the sharps are weighing in here and for that reason I’m leaning the Commanders.
IND -3.5 (vs. TEN) - Moderate - The money is coming in slightly heavier on the Colts but the public seems to be backing the Titans on the road here, getting the hook. I don’t like laying the hook and AMOS suggests Colts -2.5 is the right number so I’m going against the algo in this one but I do lean Colts.