Week 7 2021 picks
First, some perspective.
The Raw Algorithm picks have been decent so far at 50% versus the contest line. That includes last week’s mid-season mean reversion. The favorites won outright and covered every early game. C’mon man!
The struggle the entries seem to be having this season is not selecting the right 5 games week in and week out. In fact, this is the worst season on record so far. You can see the trends in the Analytics area.
Raw algorithm picks (last week 1-4, season 15-15):
IND +4 ★★
CLE -2 ★
TEN +5.5 ★
SEA +4.5 ★
NYJ +7 ★
*Editor’s Notes: I no longer feel like the information I have on the opening lines and public wagering percentages is reliable enough to make judgment calls on which side is “sharp”. Thus, going forward I’m going to write on the sides of games I prefer instead. Also, I have a correction to make. In last week’s Week 5 picks post I had presumed The Athletic’s DPR model hadn’t accounted for the [::ahem::] changes with the Seahawks and Raiders. That presumption was incorrect.
Preferred sides:
MIA (ATL) - Moderate - The algo likes the Dolphins and predicts this game as nearly a pick ‘em as compared to the contest line of +2.5. Knowing the algo, its value here is that the Falcons have been trending up while the ‘Fins have been trending downward. That tells me that the algo signal is true. It appears the sharps cleaned up a bad opening number earlier in the week and after that the momentum has shifted towards the Dolphins.
Editor’s Note: Remaining games wont be posted this week due to resource constraints. Please return next week!