Week 10 2020 picks
As we celebrate the Masters golf tournament played for the first time ever in November, there’s an old golf adage that applies perfectly to playing this season-long ATS contest:
You can’t win the tournament in the first day, but you can lose it.
For how good our collective Week 8 performance was (and our first half season performance too), there are no trophies given out for the front 9 best score. We still need to follow it up with a strong back 9 performance. In fact, by my calculations even averaging 60% through Week 8 had been on pace for only a 48.5 final score. Respectable, though insufficient given that 50+ is the nominal expectation to be competitively in the money.
Depressingly, last week proved futile. We warned that a mere 2 out of 5 would keep pace and only 1 entry was able to muster that! Between the contest entries and the algo suggestions, we correctly identified a decent ratio of the games, we couldn’t quite string them together in any coherent fashion, which resulted in poor performance across the board.
It’s been 1 year since the first against the spread blog post! Thanks for reading along! Hopefully, your ATS performance has improved having incorporated some of the principles we espouse here. Since we’ve collected a pretty decent sample size for our weekly picks analysis, let’s compile the ATS performance of the sharp and contrarian sides we’ve highlighted:
Strong plays (19): 58%
Moderate plays (53): 52%
Weak plays (57): 42%
I also want to remind the reader that the sides highlighted in The Picks first and foremost aim to identify potential value but also attempt to find sides that might differentiate our selections. While Strong plays are meant to be pretty much automatic plays, choosing the right side with Moderate or Weak plays often comes down to whether the sharp or contrarian side confirms your thinking or whether it makes you pause and ask yourself “what am I missing?”. Still, I’m pleased with the natural distribution!
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Now for the Week 10 slate…
Raw algorithm picks:
MIA -2 ★★★
CLE -3 ★★⇩⚐
CAR +5.5 ★★
SEA +1.5 ★⇩
BUF +1.5 ★⇩
Sharp/Contrarian Sides:
IND (@TEN) - Strong - Bettors got burned last week playing the Colts and I was one of them. I stand by the fact that the game was closer than the final score said but that loss stung badly. However, the public has overreacted and this once again offers value if you can stomach it. The algo suggests the fair line is Titans -1.7, which is basically where it opened (-2). However, this has been been bet down to Colts -1 even though they’re only getting ~40% of the public tickets. With the opposite line movement and algo validation at the opening number, taking the Colts as a pick ‘em this week in the contest seems like the right side.
CAR (TB) - Moderate - The algo thinks 2 should be all the Panthers should get in this matchup. Yet they’re getting 5.5 in the contest and 6 over at FOX BET. Still, the market momentum is towards the Panthers amidst ~58% public tickets on TB. Plus, Uncle Colin is “all over” TB, which might be a good fade spot here. Sure, the Bucs haven’t had a good couple of weeks. They struggled against the Giants and got blown out against the Saints in a rematch of their Week 1 tussle. In fact, Football Outsiders called the Saints win the best performance they’ve ever recorded…so there’s that. Still, my gut is telling me the contest line seems fair but I don’t think that’s a good indicator in this case. Panthers +5.5 is the value, contrarian play.
WSH (@DET) - Strong - I believe the Football Team is starting Alex Smith in this matchup. The contest is offering 4, which seems like a pretty sharp number given the opening line was Lions -5.5 but has moved as many as 2 points at some books down to Lions -3.5. The public is on DET here at a 2:1 clip and my algo agrees but with the sharp money moving this line considerably I think the Football Team is the side to back.
CLE (HOU) - Moderate - I like this play. Sure, the Texans have underperformed and I don’t like taking the worse of the two QBs as a general rule. But this number’s been steamed up to -4 consensus while I only need to lay 3 with the Browns in the contest? This is one of the top plays per the algo this week.
LAC (@MIA) - Strong - This is the top play this week per the algo. However, the signal is weakened by sharp action pushing the market line down to Dolphins -1.5 from the opening number of -3. Public on the Dolphins at a 60/40 split. Unfortunately, unless there’s buyback on the Dolphins on Sunday morning, I’ll be laying off this game.
BUF (@ARI) - Weak - Public tickets 50/50 but slight money advantage going towards the Cardinals moving the line off the key number of 3. The contest has this only at -1.5, which is mighty tempting to lay with the Cards. This is probably enough to stay away here too.
PIT (CIN) - Moderate - The algo thinks the contest line of 7 is fair value. The opening number of the Steelers -9 was too high, and with potential Steeler injury concerns as well, this has quickly been bet down to Steelers -7.5 consensus. Seeing as this is a divisional game, I don’t think the Steelers have any interest in making this game close. PIT the play here.
SF (@NO) - Moderate - I’ll admit, in my first look earlier in the week I had circled the ‘Niners as a possible play. With the opening number matching my algo line, one might think the play here is to follow the money like we did with the Colts on TNF. My take on the large line move from Saints -6.5 to a steamy -10 though only 55% of public tickets appear to be backing the Saints is to play the number. With the contest giving the ‘Niners 9, I think anything over 7.5 is valuable. SF the play.
NE (BAL) - Strong - This is the classic contrarian play. One cannot trust the Pats with Cam Newton and his obnoxious hair at the helm and who knows what Belichick is trying to angle up against. With the public all over the Ravens at a nearly 3:1 clip, line has shifted a full point towards the Pats and now sits at the Ravens -6.5. The contest is offering the full TD here and while the algo thinks 7 is fair to take the Pats, given the strong sentiment and having to lay these points on the road, I think NE is a good contrarian play. Here’s to the contest leaders taking BAL and you scoring a 2-game advantage.
SEA (LAR) - Weak - As you know from reading above, the algo likes Seahawks enough to make it a suggested play. The market is pretty split on this but has moved towards the Rams. Versus the market, the contest line is actually at a premium if the Seahawks are the side desired…which in this case they are! In these situations, where the “easy” play is to back the Rams but the contest seems to be offering an even better line than where the market looks to wind up, its almost like it’s telling us to go against the grain. That’s not aligned with our data-driven approach, so we’ll lay off this one.
NYG (PHI) - Weak - I don’t think I’ll be backing Wiggin’ Wentz again this season. Miraculously, for how abominable the NFC East has been, the division still doesn’t have a team pulling away. I agree with Uncle Colin and I actually think G-Men will win this one outright! Studying the market action shows the public is lazily backing the Eagles. The line’s moved a full point off the FG, in line with the public interest. I think the Giants are sleeping….well…Giants! Giants +3.5 is the play.
Unofficial Plays: