Week 11 2020 picks

 

Congrats are in order for Alex and Erik (Entry D) for our first perfect week bringing this entry up with the others in contention. It’s easy to look back on any week and point to what might’ve made the difference but we spent time deep-diving each game and ended up finding 5 treasures! Well done team.

There appears to be some consolidation happening atop the leaderboard, which means most of our entries are in the hunt but also means many others’ are too.

We were right on IND, WSH, NE—all strong plays.

We missed the mark on LAC as the 4th strong play of the week. Though, as was noted and because MIA was the algo’s automatic play of the week, given the conflicting strong signals we stayed off this game in the entries. I feel a bit foolish not putting more trust in the algo for this game. Still, the strong plays are now over 60% all-time, which is the benchmark for the contest!

Now for the Week 11 games…

Raw algorithm picks:

LAR +4 ★★

SEA -3 ★★

NYJ +8.5 ★★

NE -1.5 ★

MIN -7 ★

Sharp/Contrarian Sides:

SEA (ARI) - Moderate - Russ’s cookin’ lately hasn’t produced many 3 Michelin star meals. With yet another “L” last week at the Rams, coupled with the Cardinals’ Hail Mary for the win, this triggers our “” signal for this week. The opening number was Seahawks -5.5 but it has been bet down to a FG, where the contest has it, even though 50% of public tickets are backing the Seahawks. This indicates some early sharp money coming in on the Cards (and where we would’ve been if offered 5.5) but given where the line’s settled as of Thursday morning, there’s not a strong signal other than the algorithm suggested line of Seahawks -3.5. Plus, the Cardinals squeaked out a win at home last time these two teams met. Another note here, the total in this game is expected to be high. With the short line and the high total, I expect this game to come down to the final play and I don’t expect Our Lady to intercede on behalf of the Cards again.

DET (@CAR) - Weak - Teddy Bridgewater won’t be playing for the Panthers in this matchup, which the sharps think spells trouble. I’ve got these two teams as basically a pick ‘em with Bridgewater healthy. Factor in a small HFA and we match the opening number of CAR -1. The question of what point value a single player is worth against the spread is a debate for another time, but the market seems to be saying Bridgewater’s absence worth 3.5 for the market consensus to have reached Lions -2.5. The public is split on this game but slightly prefer getting the points with Carolina. With a spread under a FG this comes down to who’s going to win the game.

HOU (NE) - Moderate - Somehow the opening number was posted as Texans -3. Clearly the public has wanted no part of that as the number has shifted to Patriots -2. I don’t follow the wild line opener so I’m unsurprised to see the correction back to where my algo has handicapped this game, Pats -1.8. Our contest has this at Pats -1.5 though. If we can stomach being contrarian (public tickets 2:1 on the Pats), I think the Texans are a live ‘dog at home.

CLE (PHI) - Weak - The half-point move off the Browns -2.5 to -3 amidst 50/50 public opinion says there’s some respected bettors taking the Browns. This is one of the few games where there’s value on both sides. That said, our Pythagorean projections indicate value on the Eagles in this matchup and with the Eagles coming off a key divisional loss last week and the Browns squeaking out a victory means our “” signal is thrown. I didn’t want to play Wentz the rest of the season but with the hook on a key number here, I’m going to check the weekend line action before playing the Eagles.

CIN (@WSH) - Weak - The only thing scaring me away from the Bengals in this matchup is the market shading this towards the Football Team. The line opened Bengals +1.5 and is moving towards EV from 60% public tickets. My algo favors the Bengals by 2.2 points so getting 1.5 in the contest seems like an auto play. The DVOA metrics indicate this game will come down to whether the Football Team can stop the Bengals from scoring. The total in the game is a rather average 47 which would imply something like a 24-23 final score….Bengals to cover.

DAL (@MIN) - Weak - Pattern line open and early sharp action on the Cowboys: opened +9.5 and bet sharply down to 7.5 from a paltry 55% public tickets. I handicap this at the opening line so I’m inclined to lay the TD in the contest with the Vikings. Power rankings ideally should be W/L record independent but I am surprised to see the Vikes in my top-10 even at a pedestrian 4-5. One reason could be their top-5 strength of schedule. I don’t like leaving 2.5 points of value on the table taking the Vikings in the contest relative to the market consensus and alternatively, Andy Dalton back at QB (yes, off a bye—not that McCarthy’s shown any competence at HC), doesn’t inspire me to back the local team here.

IND (GB) - Strong - The Colts are turning out to be the team the “experts” thought they’d be! This is the third straight week where sharps are backing the Colts. The market opened Packers -2.5 but has been flipped to Colts -1.5 even though public is coming to the window backing the Packers at a 60% clip. The algo shows ever-so-slight value on the Packers and fair value on the Colts (due to the Amos asymmetry) but not enough for me to buck the sharp/contrarian pattern apparent. Laying the points with the Colts here for the third time in as many weeks!

LV (KC) - Strong - Usually backing Andy Reid off a bye week is easy money but the sharps have something else in mind this week. The line opened Chiefs -9.5 and has attracted public action at a 60% majority but the line has moved toward the Raiders, now -8 favoring the Chiefs. The contest line, Chiefs -7.5, anticipates the market momentum has more runway and my algo concurs. I show the Raiders getting 5.5 as fair value so certainly the TD hook provides plenty of value to grasp here. The Raaaiiidders the play.

NYJ (@LAC) - Moderate - The algorithm shows immense value on the Jets, something that makes my gut turn. The market opened as Chargers -10 and there’s been small moves towards the Jets getting more than 60% of the public bets. The contest seems to be anticipating this since this line’s been set at 8.5. I think the Jets will be a solid contrarian play if the consensus line continues to move lower over the weekend.

TB (LAR) - Moderate - This should be a good game! Per the raw numbers, the algo doesn’t take a side here but we included it in the top raw plays above because our system shows small variance across the models we follow (value appears on both sides of this number but marginally more on the Rams). A split public (50/50) but the line is moving in lockstep to the ratio of money coming in on the Bucs. I’m leaning towards the the Brady Bunch.

Unofficial Plays:

SEA +3

HOU +1.5

IND -1.5

LV +7.5

TB -4

 
Christopher Ruckel2020, picks