Week 13 2019 picks
Alright! Off to a great 3-0 start for the raw algorithm on Thanksgiving. Always nice to start the weekend with a win on Thursday! My official play, DET +4.5, was a winner, so four picks remain this weekend, let’s get after it!
Raw algorithm picks:
PIT +2
DEN +3
SEA -3
JAX +1
In conjunction with each weekly picks post, I will update my Tableau visualization showing the individual game variance. You can find it in The Analytics. I think this is an informative plot showing the vector of each model’s divergence. I have a static image of the visualization here and you can interact with the visualization on the Tableau Public page (linked above).
Week 13 2019 Individual Game Forecast Variance
The remaining weekend slate of games have seen strong public opinion and I think offer great opportunities for the taking. Here they are.
Sharp/Contrarian sides:
CIN (NYJ) - Strong - The public is back on the gang-green bandwagon following a recent ATS hot streak. They’re backing NYJ at a 3:1 clip so far this week but I think it’s the wrong side. Algo thinks CIN should get only 1.5 and the opening line has shifted opposite the public action, which indicates the sharps took the 3.5 early.
MIN (@SEA) - Weak - If you had asked the betting public what this line ought to be, 3 is probably the value they’d settle on. Two high-performing teams, SEA at home, what else is there to think about? The algo likes SEA heavily here (76% win probability) and the public thinks similarly as over 60% of the tickets are backing the Seahawks. I feel SEA’s been underrated all season but unless the tickets start rolling in on MIN, I’ll probably lay off this game.
MIA (PHI) - Weak - Ok! Double-digit, home ‘dog! This is what I like to see! MIA hasn’t been as bad as we thought they’d be after the first couple of weeks…….alright, maybe they have. Still, the algo thought this line should’ve been 6.5-7 points and lo and behold, that’s where it opened…until the public got hold of it and pushed it to 10 off of 60% backing. This means there hasn’t been any countervailing sharp action on MIA. Not a good sign. This almost made the raw algo cut but I will not be playing it.
OAK (@KC) - Weak - KC getting 50% of the tickets and the line’s moved from 8.5 to 10 in favor of KC. Andy Reid off a bye is pretty good but 10 seems like too many. Algo thinks KC only has a 77% chance of winning so there’s slight value here on an underrated divisional opponent. Lean OAK but will likely avoid this play.
TEN (@IND) - Strong - There’s definitely strong action anytime the line moves through a key betting number. In this case, IND opened as a 3.5-point favorite with an even ticket count only to see the line move all the way down to 2. SuperContest line is 2.5 and the algo thinks TEN is a live ‘dog here too with a 47% chance of winning outright. I like TEN +2.5.
HOU (NE) - Strong - This is one of the strongest plays of the week. Finally, NE playing a legitimate opponent on the road! NE opened 4.5-point favorites and the public gobbled that up all week at a 4:1 (80%) clip! However, the line has shifted towards HOU and now sits at HOU +3. I see this game being even closer than that. NE could lose outright here. Either way, take HOU and the FG.
DEN (LAC) - Moderate - DEN is another solid contrarian play this week. Public is backing the Chargers over 80% to cover and this line has been moved from LAC getting 1.5 at the open to now laying a FG. I can only surmise that the public feels DEN was exposed last week, which has scared off any interest. This is classic over-reaction theatre and one of the best reasons to use your own systematically-derived numbers to protect you against the same trap. I think the opening line is fair so DEN will be a recommended play this week.
NYG (GB) - Strong - The way the public’s betting this game, the G-Men shouldn’t even show up. A ridiculous 90% of the public is backing GB and laying a TD. My instincts don’t disagree but I’ve learned that following heavy public backing can be a bad betting proposition. The sharps seem to concur—they’ve moved the line from NYG +7.5 to +6.5. My algo likes GB (79% win probability). If not for being the strongest contrarian play of the week, the only thing dissuading me from backing the Giants (other than the fact that they’re bad) is that the model likes GB. Lean NYG.
PIT (CLE) - Moderate - This game will be entertaining following the ugly late-game shenanigans that resulted in multiple suspensions—mostly for CLE. The public seems to like the Browns’ recent performances enough to flip this line from the opening number of +3 to now being favored by 2, which is where the SuperContest has it. Public is on CLE decidedly but my numbers and the consensus like PIT. The PIT QB situation is up in the air so depending on this I may pass on this game.
JAX (TB) - Moderate - Yet another line flip. This game opened as JAX -4.4 (algo thinks JAX -4) and has been bet down to TB -1.5 from 3:1 public ticket backing. Yes, JAX hasn’t looked any better with Foles back at QB and Jameis’ INT machine has calmed down, but these are the type of games where it’s best to just plug your nose and take the ugly pick to the bank. I like JAX here as a contrarian, home ‘dog getting 1 in the SuperContest against their same-state rival.
The unofficial plays: