Week 14 2019 picks
Results from last week were as follows:
Raw algorithm picks: 5-2 (71%)
Unofficial picks: 3-2 (60%)
Official plays: 4-1 (80%)
Great week regardless how it’s sliced! I’ll bank that performance any week! There’s a good lesson here because this time of year contrarian picks can provide true value; with 3/4ths of the season completed, most people think they know the pedigree of each team. The fact is, the skill level difference between teams in the NFL is very small. The Eagles losing to the Dolphins last week as exhibit A, previously winless Bengals clobbering the Jets who were on a hot streak as exhibit B, and countless more examples serving as evidence to the point.
We’re officially at the quarter-pole in the 2019 NFL season—4 weeks remaining. The unofficial picks so far through the last three weeks is sitting at 7-8 (47%—keep in mind my inaugural picks went 0-5 so…doing the math here…that’s 7-3 over the last two weeks!). My official picks through Week 13 are 37-25-3 (59%). As we look towards the remaining weeks additional variables are at play: winter weather, motivation, rest for the playoffs. Don’t get distracted with the loudest narrative. Stick to the process!
Raw algorithm picks:
BUF +5.5
NYG +9.5
NO -2.5
CAR +3
JAX +3
Woof! Half of those are as ugly as Buzz’s girlfriend in Home Alone. Let’s try to find more palatable games on the sharp and contrarian sides for Week 14:
Sharp/Contrarian sides:
CHI (DAL) - Weak - Line unchanged at CHI +3, even from 3:1 public tickets on DAL. What do we do in cases like this? We turn to the algorithm as an unbiased arbitrator. The algo says….DAL -1, so there’s contrarian value here at CHI +3. As a Thursday night host team, this looks like a value-taking opportunity.
WSH (@GB) - Moderate - Dan Snyder’s Washington Sadness Machine, otherwise known as the Redskins, are coming off—can you believe it—two straight wins! Yes, they’re now getting 12.5 in the SuperContest on the road at Green Bay but this has been bet down from 14.5 at the open and GB is even taking 57% of the public betting action! It’s ugly. It’s not a recommended algo pick. But damn if it isn’t tempting!
CAR (@ATL) - Weak - Tickets rolling in on ATL at a 2:1 clip. Public laying off CAR after an abysmal last few weeks and fresh off Riverboat Ron’s firing in Charlotte. The algo likes this game as a toss-up and frankly, I don’t see much adjustment needed to Carolina’s power rating to account for Ron Rivera’s abrupt departure. If this game wasn’t on the road, I’d lean CAR. In this case, I pass.
SF (@NO) - Weak - This will be the 49ers second straight road game, at a divisional opponent who has clinched the division—but not home field advantage! The algo likes NO heavily here and has it as its #2 play this week. However, I’m troubled because the betting public is all over SF (2:1) after a valiant showing at BAL in Week 13. This seems to be setting up for a late line move, though I can’t discern which direction. Await a post update later in the week. For now I will remain on NO -2.5.
TB (IND) - Moderate - Early betting action coming in on IND +1 but the money seems to be rolling in on TB -1 pushing this line to -3. Algo thinks the opening number is right. This is a rare circumstance where the early money is only right money. The countervailing line move away from the public majority is intriguing. I’ll continue to monitor before putting on a position here.
BUF (BAL) - Strong - Strongest sharp play of the week. Buffalo has quietly continued to perform, both straight up and against the spread. They have been bet down to +5.5 from opening at +7 though only getting ~25% of the ticket count. My algorithm suggests BUF has a 39% chance of winning (+3 to +3.5), compared to the consensus at 29% (+6.5). There’s value here and BAL coming off of an NFL game of the week win is a great chance to fade them.
LAC (@JAX) - Weak - My algorithm has JAX -2.5, the line opened at JAX +1 and has been bet to JAX +3 off of a slight public backing majority. The Jaaaaagggsssssss (as Jeremy Clarkson says) haven’t given anyone confidence to back them lately. On the other hand the Clippers…I mean Chargers find a new way to lose seemingly every week! The Chargers’ Pythag W/L differential is a staggering -2.6 through Week 14. That means they’re really a 6-6 team—unlucky. Whereas the Jags are who we thought they were. Signals are conflicting here so let’s pass on this one.
LAR (SEA) - Moderate - Who knows which Rams team will show up on Sunday night against the mentally tough Seachickens. Seems like the sharps are influencing this line taking it from LAR +3 to a pick ‘em off ~30% of the tickets. I have Seattle rated as the highest team in the league currently and closer to the opening number in this matchup. I like to lean towards the better QB-Coach duo in matchups with conflicting signals. Based on that I lean SEA but need to monitor the weekend lines.
NYG (@PHI) - Moderate - NYG is getting +9.5 on the road at PHI. This number has been bet up from opening at NYG +8 off a slight public ticket majority. The public is flat wrong here. Hear me out here folks. The Giants were the sharp side last week at home against GB as a 6.5-point underdog. Yes, they lost and failed to cover but the game was close early. Honestly answer: are the G-Men substantially worse 1 week later? While you think about that consider the Iggles. They outright lost as double-digit favorites to the other Florida SEC team (yes, I know you forgot about them)…the Dolphins! (One reason why I think the NFL should adopt the Premier League relegation rules.) Now riddle me this, if this matchup happened in Week 13, my algo suggests the line should only be PHI -7.5. So given the line is now PHI -9.5, why are the Giants being punished more for losing to a playoff-bound opponent as compared to the Eagles losing to a basement-dwelling Dolphins team as a double-digit favorite? In fact, my numbers think NYG should only be getting a TD here. While NYG doesn’t offer much to hang your hat on, against a bitter divisional rival, this line is mis-priced. Plug your nose and take the G-Men plus the 9.5 on Monday Night Football!
Unofficial plays: