Week 2 2021 picks

 

Solid start to the season after Week 1. Overall, the entries hit an aggregate 15-7-3 ATS! Very respectable.

Curiously, my straight up selections (based solely on the algorithm projections) only logged 7 wins out of 16 games, which aligns with the fact that more Week 1 ‘dogs won outright that what was expected. I’ll come back to this point later.

I’d like to touch on two points before analyzing Week 2 games.

The first is a reminder to not overreact to Week 1 outcomes. In some ways, since the preseason is becoming increasingly irrelevant in assessing team performance, how teams look in Week 1 often makes an outsized impression. Also, with the expanded 17-game schedule, some of the base rate statistics (e.g., “teams that start 0-2 only make the playoffs 8% of the time”) are now outdated. With the additional NFL game, each individual game carries less weight. In the extreme example, the MLB has 10x more games than the NFL and no one is making rash judgements about the Red Sox if they lose on Opening Day. This is something that the mainstream media, especially those that inform the betting public, haven’t caught yet. I would recommend to fade this early season public overreaction.

The second is to encourage you to not discount your own conviction. This is not to say to put more faith in your gut feel rather to put more emphasis on your model’s edge. I’ve made it a focus lately to improve the accuracy of my algorithm forecasts by aggregating other NFL models I’ve found on the web. I’m pleased with the information I’ve collected and the composite information has incrementally improved my projections, but in doing so, I’ve noticed that my decision-making is growing less and less differentiated versus the consensus. The fact that the entries had such strong ATS performance but the performance straight up was at market-level underscores the need for more conviction. Therefore, this season, if I feel like I have an edge I’m going to press it harder than I have before.

Raw algorithm picks (Last week 3-2):

NYG* +3.5 ★★

MIA +3.5 ★

CAR +3 ★

HOU +3 ★⚐

JAX +3 ★

Sharp/Contrarian sides:

PHI (SF) - Moderate - The Eagles surpassed my expectations in Week 1 for sure. Now they get a ‘Niners team playing their second game on the road in a row. The ‘Niners didn’t exactly end their Week 1 game on a high note and I think that lack of momentum heading into Philly has an Eagles outright win is in play. The public is taking the ‘Niners at a 2:1 clip while the line’s been dropping from -4 to -3. Playing the Eagles and the hook in the contest offers value that I will be taking.

MIA (BUF) - Moderate - Another home dog in Week 2 that sets up well for my taste. Yes, the Bills lost last week but it was at the hands of a respectable franchise, the Steelers. As evidenced by the nearly 70% public interest, the Bills still carry the status of an elite team this year. The Dolphins are coming off an outright win as a road ‘dog in New England. My straight power rating estimate for this game is BUF -1.2 and Amos suggests BUF -2.6. The line has moved in conjunction with the public action: opening BUF -2.5 and now sitting at -3.5, where the contest also offers it. I note this as a contrarian play, backing the Dolphins, and I’m going to do it.

CIN (CHI) - Moderate - The Bengals are getting ~55% of the public action and the line has blown through the key number of 3 on its way from 4 to 2, favoring the home team Bears. There’s been a lot of negativity around Andy Dalton but I was encouraged by his team’s play last week against a much better Rams team. While they failed to cover last week I didn’t downgrade their power rating as much as it appears the public has. The algorithm slightly leans Bengals (Amos suggests +1.2) and there is inherent value in the contest line versus the market. I’m going to pass.

NYJ (NE) - Weak - Very contrarian take this week. Then again, when is taking the Jets not contrarian? This week the public is backing the Pats at a 4:1 ratio and the Jets are getting 6 points (up from 4 at the open). The algo thinks the opening number was fair so the question here is whether to follow the “steam” or lay off? I’m going to hold here and see what these rookie QBs do without getting involved.

LAC (DAL) - Moderate - Maybe I’ve been in the Big D too long but I saw a hungrier Dak Prescott in their valiant loss at the Bucs in Week 1. The sharp action favors the Chargers (line’s moved to LAC -3 from -1.5, while the public is on Dallas at ~55%). I actually think the rested Cowboys will offer a tough matchup. Pass.

SEA (TEN) - Moderate - Sad week this week as Trevor Moawad, Russell Wilson’s mental conditioning coach, passed away. For those that haven’t read his book, “It Takes What It Takes”, it’s well worth the read. The mental side of sport (and life) is key and Trevor was one of the world’s best at unlocking the elite potential of his clients. The Seahawks are a darkhorse SB contender and I think Trevor’s passing provides Russell even more motivation this season. As for this game, the public is split down the middle here yet the line’s moved convincingly from -3.5 to -6.5. The contest only requires Seahawks bettors to lay 5.5. Hard to see what 49% of the public sees in the Titans after Week 1 and now having to travel to face the 12th Man. I’m going to order what Russ is cookin’ this week.

BAL (KC) - Moderate - The algo thinks the Ravens getting 3.5 offers a half to a full point of value. The public pretty much thinks this game shouldn’t even be played as 4 out of 5 bettors are backing the Chiefs on the road. Hard to bet against the Chiefs but they’re not the side I’d take if forced to play this game.

Other notable games:

JAX (DEN) - The algo likes the Jags and thinks 3 to 3.5 is more appropriate. Instead, they’re getting 6 at home and the public isn’t fazed, backing the Broncos at a 70% clip. The line move has coincided with the public action suggesting there’s either respected money on the Broncos or (more likely in my opinion here) there’s not much interest in the Jags.

CAR (NO) - Home ‘dog…again. Both teams won last week. Both teams have QBs that have been historically difficult to predict. The public is pretty much split (55/45 leaning Saints) while the line’s moved with the public, now sitting at 3. Per my estimate this game is much more like a toss-up than the consensus seems to think. Uncle Colin shockingly agrees with me and likes the Panthers to cover and win outright.

HOU (@CLE) - Earlier in the week this number was modestly moving towards the Texans (opened CLE -13 and was briefly at -12.5). The Texans do have a ton of value here at -12.5 (about 2 points of value relative to my numbers). I’m going to play it.

Unofficial Plays:

PHI +3.5

MIA +3.5

SEA -5.5

CAR +3

HOU +12.5

 
Christopher Ruckelpicks, 2021, NFL