Week 3 2021 picks
Ooof. The entries came back to earth in Week 2. A combined 8-17 ATS for the week. The three teams selected in more than 3 or more entries accounted for 10 of the combined 17 losses (PIT, PHI, SEA).
I wrote last week that one of the 2021 keys to success would to emphasize differentiating from the consensus. To underscore the value of this, here’s the ATS performance of last week’s teams with the greatest positive differentiation versus the consensus win probability:
CAR +11% ✔️
NYG +9% ✔️
SF +8% ✔️
LV +7% ✔️
MIN +7% ✔️
TEN +7% ✔️
JAX +7% ❌
(For example, the consensus forecast estimated the Panthers had a 38% chance of winning whereas my algo win probability projected 49%.)
Well needless to say, I didn’t “press it harder than I have before” and the results speak for themselves. Let’s try to right the ship in Week 3.
Raw algorithm picks (Last week 3-2):
HOU* +8 ★⚐
DAL -4 ★★
NYJ +10 ★★⚐
PIT -3 ★★
LAR +1.5 ★
Yes, it’s not a typo…there are two favorites listed that the algo suggests this week. I assure you the algorithm is working correctly but let’s dig into the market moves to discern whether the suggestions are worth following this week.
Sharp/Contrarian sides:
HOU (CAR) - Moderate - First, the facts: the Texans are a serious live ‘dog here. Amos suggests…wait for it…a single point separating these two teams on Thursday night. Yet the public is betting the Panthers to a tune of 3:1. Both teams have started this season perfect against the spread. Some models suggest the Texans probability of covering at 61%! This game offers the highest value on the underdog of any game this week. Short week, at home, with value? Check. Check. Check. Playing it.
NYG (ATL) - Moderate - G-men aren’t getting much public interest this week (36%) yet the line’s creeped up to 3 at a few books from opening at 2.5. The contest anticipated this and has the line set a 3. Amos thinks the Giants should only lay 2.9 so there’s no value and at the full FG it’s not worth the play. Pass.
LAC (@KC) - Moderate - The public is comfortably backing the Chiefs at 62% as of this writing. The line’s been frozen at 7 yet the contest offers it at 6. Chad Millman, on Colin’s Week 3 betting podcast, indicated that the Chargers were the sharpest play of the week. Unfortunately, the algo prefers the full TD so playing the Chargers at 6.5, off a key number, erodes the inherent value in the number. In a fluid market it’s always wise to get the right number but in the contest that’s rarely the case. Playing the Chargers.
CHI (@CLE) - Moderate - Again, another frozen line amidst lopsided public interest. Sounds like Odell Beckham Jr. will be back from last year’s injury. The algo shows slight value on the Bears—just shy of a touchdown. The fact that the contest gives us 7 is intriguing. For what it’s worth, The Athletic’s prediction model (which is one of the best publicly available) suggests 5.4 is a fair line so I’d like to lean Bears.
JAX (ARI) - Moderate - Somehow this game “opened” at 2.5 but it’s been corrected to 7.5 based on nearly 7:1 public interest on the Cards. I haven’t heard a compelling argument to back the super-contrarian Jaguars but I know from experience that the Jags are the sharp angle. Remember, Vegas doesn’t give out free money. The algo doesn’t give a recommendation on this game but it should be noted that the contest line is slightly shaded towards the Jags (+7), while the market is at +7.5.
NE (NO) - Moderate - It appears the sharps and squares are getting behind the Pats here. The Saints haven’t been home on the account of Hurricane Ida and Jameis is still their QB afterall. Laying a full FG in this game doesn’t provide any actionable value on the Pats (algo suggests 2.8 is a fair number). I’m thinking pass.
CIN (@PIT) - Strong - The algo may not be squarely behind the public on this matchup (3.9 - 4.9 is the expected range) but it doesn’t have the conviction of the sharp move downward. The composite model shows value versus the contest and low prediction variance, yet the sharps are spearing this line down from 5.5 to 3. This game is archetypical of the decision paradox that is the picking ATS. That is, the early move is the right move and the resultant contest line is essentially a 50/50 proposition. If I back the Bengals on the road, I’m going all in and will pick them straight up too.
SF (GB) - Strong - The sharps have definitely influenced this line from ‘Niners -2.5 to now -3.5, where the contest has it. Earlier in the week the public ticket count was on the Packers at over 60% but the wiser bets have been flowing in and now it’s almost 50/50 public ticket count. The algo suggests -3.9 as a fair number for this game and I’m going to follow the action here and play the ‘Niners at home.
PHI (DAL) - Strong - As is shown above, the raw power rating line shows tremendous value on the Cowboys. The algo thinks the opening number of 6 is the correct one (5.9), versus the 4 that the Cowboys are needing to lay in the contest. The Athletic’s model suggests 1.9, while the model composite I track thinks 5 is better (you’re getting the sense of converging on the market line here…). Uncle Colin’s on the Eagles and the line’s moved towards the Eagles, while the public is backing the Cowboys as expected (~60%). I wouldn’t be surprised to see this creep back up from this current market line of -3.5 on Sunday morning.
Other notable games:
NYJ (DEN) - Fade the Broncos. I have a signal that looks at the performance trend of teams and when it crosses a threshold on the low or high side, it’s triggered. This one suggests the Broncos might be at their apogee. Laying 10 on the road isn’t a +EV proposition. The public is split here but the line’s been moving steadily upward. The algo would’ve expected 7.5 so the fact that the market seems to think the Jets’ questionable QB status is worth 3 points is a lot. Again, like the Eagles game, the contest didn’t fully anticipate the market momentum, which leads me to think the value on the Jets isn’t a mirage.